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That graph of population reaching a plateau is utter bullshit when you consider we're only at 2015. Are they just guessing?

hyperpape 11y ago
Short answer: no, but it is extremely unpredictable (hence the billions of people between the low and high forecasts). You can look at countries as incomes increase, infant mortality decreases etc, and see patterns in fertility. And fertility rates do sometimes increase or decrease for poorly understood reasons, but they're not random: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:USA:CHN:JPN&hl=en&dl=en https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&....
kbutler 11y ago
They are guessing much less than those who simply extrapolate exponential growth. The population plateau is based on the development trends observed in developed and developing countries. As standard of living increases, with improved life expectancy and education, population growth slows. Many developed countries are below the replacement rate, and any population growth is as a result of immigration from less-developed countries.
ThomPete 11y ago
Not according to Hans Rosling. http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen?language=en http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_y...
- wernerpm 11y ago
  and this talk is already 9 years old
swalsh 11y ago
When you live in a society dominated by agriculture children are an asset. When you live in an industrial/service based society like our own children are a cost. So generally speaking, most people have fewer children. As the world develops the trend continues. China is probably a data anomaly because of it's one child policy... however if it had not had it, i'd be willing to bet you could watch the trend. I'll just throw this out there, I pay $1600 a month for daycare. It's the reason I have 1 kid, and waiting before having a second. Throw into the mix better birth control tech/education/use, and this kind of restraint is possible.

hyperpape 11y ago

Short answer: no, but it is extremely unpredictable (hence the billions of people between the low and high forecasts). You can look at countries as incomes increase, infant mortality decreases etc, and see patterns in fertility. And fertility rates do sometimes increase or decrease for poorly understood reasons, but they're not random: https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:USA:CHN:JPN&hl=en&dl=en https://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&....

kbutler 11y ago

They are guessing much less than those who simply extrapolate exponential growth. The population plateau is based on the development trends observed in developed and developing countries. As standard of living increases, with improved life expectancy and education, population growth slows. Many developed countries are below the replacement rate, and any population growth is as a result of immigration from less-developed countries.

ThomPete 11y ago

Not according to Hans Rosling. http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen?language=en http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_y...

wernerpm 11y ago
and this talk is already 9 years old

swalsh 11y ago

When you live in a society dominated by agriculture children are an asset. When you live in an industrial/service based society like our own children are a cost. So generally speaking, most people have fewer children. As the world develops the trend continues. China is probably a data anomaly because of it's one child policy... however if it had not had it, i'd be willing to bet you could watch the trend. I'll just throw this out there, I pay $1600 a month for daycare. It's the reason I have 1 kid, and waiting before having a second. Throw into the mix better birth control tech/education/use, and this kind of restraint is possible.