5 ms·

Disasters That Worry Emergency Planners Most

58 points by aaronbrethorst 11y ago

struct 11y ago
Sounds obvious, but was that billion-dollar disaster graph adjusted for inflation?
- phaemon 11y ago
  Yes. If you click the NOAA link on that graph, it'll take you to a Summary Stats page where you can switch between CPI adjusted and unadjusted. The link is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats
CmonDev 11y ago
Surprised to not see "civil war" mentioned.
- hga 11y ago
  It's remarkably hard to plan for one without any idea of the "shape" it would take. Region vs. region? Faction vs. faction, which would geographically mix it up a lot more? What would which governments be responsible for, and not? The normal preparations would go some ways, everyone should have bugout plans, storage of food, water, essential medicines, etc., and while of course not recommended by most governments, basic arms, e.g. a rifle and pistol. Beyond that, it's really hard to say at this point, especially since we seem to be so far from one (for how long did our only Civil War brew?).
- mfringel 11y ago
  One can typically see a civil war coming from much further away than a hurricane or earthquake.
- clarkmoody 11y ago
  Civil war would be somewhat out of the scope of what the article is talking about, namely discrete, punctuated events like nuclear blasts and earthquakes. Even hurricanes last only a few days in one area. War could drag on for years.
- pjc50 11y ago
  Civil war in the west is just not going to happen. There is localised political violence, but a proper civil war requires the defection of some or all of the military. The most likely country for this that counts as "western" is Turkey.
  - rsync 11y ago
    Uhmmm ... Spain ? That was only 75 years ago ...
    - acveilleux 11y ago
      And a close call in 1981 and 1982. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23-F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23-F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Spanish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Spanish_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...
cryoshon 11y ago
"“To me it’s about numbers,” Fugate said. “How big can the numbers get? [Those] will produce the biggest numbers.”" This comes out of the guy who is supposed to be in charge of coordinating our disaster relief. To me, it's about potatoes. How tasty can our potatoes get? Those will be the tastiest potatoes.
- jackgavigan 11y ago
  > This comes out of the guy who is supposed to be in charge of coordinating our disaster relief. When I read this, I remembered that the FEMA administrator at the time of Hurricane Katrina was a political appointee with zero relevant experience, so I went looking to see if Fugate is any different. Boy, is he! Fugate has spent his entire career in this space, starting as a volunteer firefighter in high school, then working as a paramedic before spending ten years as emergency manager at the county level, then deputy director and director at the state level (in Florida). He turned down the FEMA administrator job in 2005 (when the aforementioned political appointee resigned in the aftermath of Katrina). His reaction to being nominated by Obama for the role was to tweet "Pigs do fly" - https://twitter.com/disastersrus/status/1279506490 https://twitter.com/disastersrus/status/1279506490 He supports the use of technology, including social media as a communications tool in the aftermath of disasters - http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/05/04/written-statement-craig-fugate-administrator-federal-emergency-management-agency http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/05/04/written-statement-craig-f... - and crowdsourcing of disaster reporting via smartphone apps - http://www.fema.gov/disaster-reporter http://www.fema.gov/disaster-reporter He is a licensed ham radio operator and he used to run a website (domain registered in 2000; now inactive) with links, information and advice on how to prepare for disasters - http://www.disastersrus.org/bio.htm http://www.disastersrus.org/bio.htm This guy is awesome. If he says it's about numbers, I believe him.
  - whiddershins 11y ago
    There was a great essay a few days ago by that FEMA director, who apparently was not at all unqualified for his role. http://www.mediaite.com/online/ex-fema-director-michael-brown-stop-blaming-me-for-hurricane-katrina/ http://www.mediaite.com/online/ex-fema-director-michael-brow...
throwaway049 11y ago
I can't find the exact quote, but a former Chief Constable of Avon and Somerset Police said something like "On my patch I have to worry about an international airport, a nuclear power station, and Glastonbury Festival". I once volunteered to be a pseudo-casualty needing a decontamination shower from the Fire & Rescue Service on site there. By the time they had rigged up fire appliance vehicles for showers and dug a waste water pit the sun was going down and it wasn't great weather for an outdoor cold shower.
paulmd 11y ago
Another factor is that successful preparedness for past events produces a false sense of complacency for future events. The more disaster planners succeed, the less people think their work is necessary.
- deelowe 11y ago
  My area of work centers around quality and testing these days. This comment really hits home.
- mikestew 11y ago
  See also: Y2K. What a waste of money all that was, amiright?
  - alblue 11y ago
    No

struct 11y ago

Sounds obvious, but was that billion-dollar disaster graph adjusted for inflation?

phaemon 11y ago
Yes. If you click the NOAA link on that graph, it'll take you to a Summary Stats page where you can switch between CPI adjusted and unadjusted. The link is: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/summary-stats

CmonDev 11y ago

Surprised to not see "civil war" mentioned.

hga 11y ago
It's remarkably hard to plan for one without any idea of the "shape" it would take. Region vs. region? Faction vs. faction, which would geographically mix it up a lot more? What would which governments be responsible for, and not? The normal preparations would go some ways, everyone should have bugout plans, storage of food, water, essential medicines, etc., and while of course not recommended by most governments, basic arms, e.g. a rifle and pistol. Beyond that, it's really hard to say at this point, especially since we seem to be so far from one (for how long did our only Civil War brew?).
mfringel 11y ago
One can typically see a civil war coming from much further away than a hurricane or earthquake.
clarkmoody 11y ago
Civil war would be somewhat out of the scope of what the article is talking about, namely discrete, punctuated events like nuclear blasts and earthquakes. Even hurricanes last only a few days in one area. War could drag on for years.
pjc50 11y ago
Civil war in the west is just not going to happen. There is localised political violence, but a proper civil war requires the defection of some or all of the military. The most likely country for this that counts as "western" is Turkey.
- rsync 11y ago
  Uhmmm ... Spain ? That was only 75 years ago ...
  - acveilleux 11y ago
    And a close call in 1981 and 1982. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23-F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/23-F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Spanish_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat_attempt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Spanish_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

cryoshon 11y ago

"“To me it’s about numbers,” Fugate said. “How big can the numbers get? [Those] will produce the biggest numbers.”" This comes out of the guy who is supposed to be in charge of coordinating our disaster relief. To me, it's about potatoes. How tasty can our potatoes get? Those will be the tastiest potatoes.

jackgavigan 11y ago
> This comes out of the guy who is supposed to be in charge of coordinating our disaster relief. When I read this, I remembered that the FEMA administrator at the time of Hurricane Katrina was a political appointee with zero relevant experience, so I went looking to see if Fugate is any different. Boy, is he! Fugate has spent his entire career in this space, starting as a volunteer firefighter in high school, then working as a paramedic before spending ten years as emergency manager at the county level, then deputy director and director at the state level (in Florida). He turned down the FEMA administrator job in 2005 (when the aforementioned political appointee resigned in the aftermath of Katrina). His reaction to being nominated by Obama for the role was to tweet "Pigs do fly" - https://twitter.com/disastersrus/status/1279506490 https://twitter.com/disastersrus/status/1279506490 He supports the use of technology, including social media as a communications tool in the aftermath of disasters - http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/05/04/written-statement-craig-fugate-administrator-federal-emergency-management-agency http://www.dhs.gov/news/2011/05/04/written-statement-craig-f... - and crowdsourcing of disaster reporting via smartphone apps - http://www.fema.gov/disaster-reporter http://www.fema.gov/disaster-reporter He is a licensed ham radio operator and he used to run a website (domain registered in 2000; now inactive) with links, information and advice on how to prepare for disasters - http://www.disastersrus.org/bio.htm http://www.disastersrus.org/bio.htm This guy is awesome. If he says it's about numbers, I believe him.
- whiddershins 11y ago
  There was a great essay a few days ago by that FEMA director, who apparently was not at all unqualified for his role. http://www.mediaite.com/online/ex-fema-director-michael-brown-stop-blaming-me-for-hurricane-katrina/ http://www.mediaite.com/online/ex-fema-director-michael-brow...

throwaway049 11y ago

I can't find the exact quote, but a former Chief Constable of Avon and Somerset Police said something like "On my patch I have to worry about an international airport, a nuclear power station, and Glastonbury Festival". I once volunteered to be a pseudo-casualty needing a decontamination shower from the Fire & Rescue Service on site there. By the time they had rigged up fire appliance vehicles for showers and dug a waste water pit the sun was going down and it wasn't great weather for an outdoor cold shower.

paulmd 11y ago

Another factor is that successful preparedness for past events produces a false sense of complacency for future events. The more disaster planners succeed, the less people think their work is necessary.

deelowe 11y ago
My area of work centers around quality and testing these days. This comment really hits home.
mikestew 11y ago
See also: Y2K. What a waste of money all that was, amiright?
- alblue 11y ago
  No