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> Google's head of their self-driving vehicle team has committed to general availability of their self-driving cars in 4 years Yes, but I said "self-driving ca
by patrickaljord 11y ago
> Google's head of their self-driving vehicle team has committed to general availability of their self-driving cars in 4 years
Yes, but I said "self-driving cars will be a majority" in 15 to 20 years. The internet was invented in 1983, made available to the public in 1990 and took over 10 to 15 years later, even today there's a good proportion of the population that do not use it.
- toomuchtodo 11y agoThe future is hard to predict. It depends on two things: * Regulations * Manufacturing capacity The world auto fleet is replaced pretty slowly. Perhaps its turned over quicker for every self-driving car released onto the roads. If I recall correctly, for every Zipcar shared car in a neighborhood, ~20 cars are no longer kept by owners in the area. Self-driving vehicles could have the same effect, limited to only how fast they can be built and shipped on rail to their final operational region. Regulations. These are important. Self-driving cars will kill less people than human drivers. Full stop. If you incentivize people to use self-driving cars (insurance rates skyrocket for human drivers), you'll push people to automated vehicles faster. Less deaths, less capital outlay for humanity as a whole for buying cars, lots of efficiency all around. If you want to make a gentleman's Long Bet [1] on it, I'd be down for that (token amount donated to the winner's charity of choice). [1] http://longbets.org/ http://longbets.org/