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This is just a train wreck of misinformation. First of all, not a lot of people actually use academic economic theories to "play the markets". Ask a trader how

by jevgeni 11y ago

This is just a train wreck of misinformation. First of all, not a lot of people actually use academic economic theories to "play the markets". Ask a trader how often does (s)he use the General Theory or monetarism in their daily decision making. There are macro-strategies, used mostly by fund managers, but it's not such a big portion of the market. Secondly, anyone found to use astrology in their market activities would be fired in nanoseconds. Whichever institution. You can do it privately though. The fact that one can get good results speculating while using astrology as a decision generator (or in fact any other random mechanism, like a monkey throwing darts) is actually known and used in the financial theory. It is called "the random walk hypothesis" and is the foundation of a lot of assumptions. A good introduction to it would be "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel. So I urge you to actually build an informed opinion before succumbing to an Alex Jones brand of reasoning.

TheOtherHobbes 11y ago
>This is just a train wreck of misinformation. So are the markets. >First of all, not a lot of people actually use academic economic theories Maybe not, it you don't consider Black-Scholes and it's endless brood of offspring to be serious academic theories. Not many people use nation-state Keynesian or other big macro policy theories to play the markets - which is a different point. But it's a relevant different point, because it highlights the political reality of using macro as a hand-wavey excuse for policy which benefits market operators and the owners of the money behind them at the expense of the rest of the population. >It is called "the random walk hypothesis" and is the foundation of a lot of assumptions. Quite. Does it not worry you that this is true, or that even with this insight manic-depressive boom-bust behaviour is apparently still considered a feature, not a bug? >So I urge you to actually build an informed opinion I suspect my opinion is at least adequately informed. Perhaps you're mistaking being heterodox for being wrong?

by jevgeni 11y ago

TheOtherHobbes 11y ago

>This is just a train wreck of misinformation. So are the markets. >First of all, not a lot of people actually use academic economic theories Maybe not, it you don't consider Black-Scholes and it's endless brood of offspring to be serious academic theories. Not many people use nation-state Keynesian or other big macro policy theories to play the markets - which is a different point. But it's a relevant different point, because it highlights the political reality of using macro as a hand-wavey excuse for policy which benefits market operators and the owners of the money behind them at the expense of the rest of the population. >It is called "the random walk hypothesis" and is the foundation of a lot of assumptions. Quite. Does it not worry you that this is true, or that even with this insight manic-depressive boom-bust behaviour is apparently still considered a feature, not a bug? >So I urge you to actually build an informed opinion I suspect my opinion is at least adequately informed. Perhaps you're mistaking being heterodox for being wrong?