3 ms·

More importantly, I'd suggest that if you include the iPad in laptops then the prediction is pretty much correct without further discussion.

emn13 11y ago
Even if you include the ipad, it's still not true. The top 3 sellers nowadays have about 50% of the PC marketshare, and they're still IBM(but now called lenovo), HP and Dell. That's around million units - well in excess of ipad sales (mac's don't really make a dent). If you took the top 5... And I don't think it's really reasonable to include tablets at all. The motivation is that they're a new, unforeseen development? But then you really should be including android tablets in those numbers too; and those happen to be sold primarily by other vendors. At the end of the day, it's clear that tablets aren't laptops, nor do they look like they really replace laptops (especially not the ipad - you could quibble about microsoft's offerings, but those haven't been too successful yet.) The heart of the prediction was that apple would come to dominate the laptop business. Clearly, it has not. It's still mostly windows-vendors. If you include tablets, apple does better, but there too it's a minority market share; android dominates.
- Tloewald 11y ago
  Good point re android tablets (and add chromebooks). But you are way off in your figures. In 2014 tablets outsold laptops 1.5 to 1. Apple sold 12M iPads in q4 2014. And tablets replace laptops for many people. Most people just do Facebook, web, and email.
  - emn13 11y ago
    I meant to say 100 million but the number got dropped between keyboard and chair, sorry ;-). Best estimate is that there are around 200 million laptops a year sold (2014) based on a PC market of over 300 million and that laptops outsell desktops (worldwide). Looks to me like tablets sell roughly at the same rate, around 230 million units. (I think it's not easy to find comparable numbers so maybe my data is off). So given apples approximately 25%-33% market share of tablets that's just around 50-80 million ipads, which is still well below the top three in laptop sales (100 million).
    - Tloewald 11y ago
      For 2014 I see 230M tablets, 170M laptops, and recall that Apple is #4 in laptops as well. I think your figures are very shaky. In any event, Yegge's prediction is -- pretty shockingly -- in the ballpark. (Also bear in mind that most non-iPad tablets are in fact nothing like laptop replacements, and many are barely useful for anything or are dedicated bookreaders.) http://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-f...

emn13 11y ago

Even if you include the ipad, it's still not true. The top 3 sellers nowadays have about 50% of the PC marketshare, and they're still IBM(but now called lenovo), HP and Dell. That's around million units - well in excess of ipad sales (mac's don't really make a dent). If you took the top 5... And I don't think it's really reasonable to include tablets at all. The motivation is that they're a new, unforeseen development? But then you really should be including android tablets in those numbers too; and those happen to be sold primarily by other vendors. At the end of the day, it's clear that tablets aren't laptops, nor do they look like they really replace laptops (especially not the ipad - you could quibble about microsoft's offerings, but those haven't been too successful yet.) The heart of the prediction was that apple would come to dominate the laptop business. Clearly, it has not. It's still mostly windows-vendors. If you include tablets, apple does better, but there too it's a minority market share; android dominates.

Tloewald 11y ago
Good point re android tablets (and add chromebooks). But you are way off in your figures. In 2014 tablets outsold laptops 1.5 to 1. Apple sold 12M iPads in q4 2014. And tablets replace laptops for many people. Most people just do Facebook, web, and email.
- emn13 11y ago
  I meant to say 100 million but the number got dropped between keyboard and chair, sorry ;-). Best estimate is that there are around 200 million laptops a year sold (2014) based on a PC market of over 300 million and that laptops outsell desktops (worldwide). Looks to me like tablets sell roughly at the same rate, around 230 million units. (I think it's not easy to find comparable numbers so maybe my data is off). So given apples approximately 25%-33% market share of tablets that's just around 50-80 million ipads, which is still well below the top three in laptop sales (100 million).
  - Tloewald 11y ago
    For 2014 I see 230M tablets, 170M laptops, and recall that Apple is #4 in laptops as well. I think your figures are very shaky. In any event, Yegge's prediction is -- pretty shockingly -- in the ballpark. (Also bear in mind that most non-iPad tablets are in fact nothing like laptop replacements, and many are barely useful for anything or are dedicated bookreaders.) http://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-forecast-for-tablets-laptops-and-desktop-pcs/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/272595/global-shipments-f...