This fits with my understanding of what's happening here. The SO discussion is a bit unclear as you go down the page, but the initial statement of problem up t

This fits with my understanding of what's happening here. The SO discussion is a bit unclear as you go down the page, but the initial statement of problem up top clearly claims that you're questioned each time you awaken. I think you're quite right to point out that being correct is the only fair heuristic for this question. Several of the defenses of a 'halfer' belief amount to "you ought to believe this so that your beliefs obey this type of decision theory". Actively believing something with a (reliably) worse payout to conform to a rule about belief seems like a terrible form of epistemology. On a related note, are you familiar with Newcomb's Paradox and the LessWrong debates over it? They get to a similar idea of "correctness above all".