3 ms·
Once you know it is the first awakening, the probability of it being the first awakening is 100%.
by colanderman 11y ago
Once you know it is the first awakening, the probability of it being the first awakening is 100%.
- ikeboy 11y agoWhen you wake up, you don't know which awakening it is. You claim the probability of heads is 50%. Now, you are told it is the first awakening. The probability of learning that if heads is twice as much as the probability of learning that if tails, so your Bayes factor is 2:1. You therefore cannot still believe that the probability of heads is 50%.