3 ms·
If you ask 1000 people to ask a coin to identify the major trends in a complex ecosystem and make inferences about their future course... they will look at you
by rfrey 11y ago
If you ask 1000 people to ask a coin to identify the major trends in a complex ecosystem and make inferences about their future course... they will look at you oddly.
- pekk 11y agoThey don't have to ask the coin. They can just assign different meanings to heads and tails, flip the coin, and record the result as a prediction. If you have 1000 people do this, some of them will appear to be miraculous predictors just by chance. It doesn't matter whether they are talking about major trends in a complex ecosystem, or whether they believe they are performing inferences. Sometimes a correct guess is just a guess which turned out to be correct, rather than evidence of prophecy.
- dredmorbius 11y agoMap this to Zuck's infamous statement about Twitter: 'They Drove A Clown Car That Fell Into A Gold Mine'. Nothing succeeds like success. Unfortunately, it's difficult to tell luck from skill quite often. I'd argue that Zuck didn't do too differently either. Both companies did have technical execution down. But circumstances also mattered hugely.