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> Game 2: If you guess correctly then you get $10 by the end of the experiment. The question is clear you get a reward each time you awaken, not at the end of
by aaron695 11y ago
> Game 2: If you guess correctly then you get $10 by the end of the experiment.
The question is clear you get a reward each time you awaken, not at the end of the game.
The reward is correctness (Humans like being correct = reward, else things like 'should believe' becomes meaningless hence the question becomes meaningless Q.E.D. it's not meaningless and correctness is a reward)
"When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?"
- Bartweiss 11y agoThis fits with my understanding of what's happening here. The SO discussion is a bit unclear as you go down the page, but the initial statement of problem up top clearly claims that you're questioned each time you awaken. I think you're quite right to point out that being correct is the only fair heuristic for this question. Several of the defenses of a 'halfer' belief amount to "you ought to believe this so that your beliefs obey this type of decision theory". Actively believing something with a (reliably) worse payout to conform to a rule about belief seems like a terrible form of epistemology. On a related note, are you familiar with Newcomb's Paradox and the LessWrong debates over it? They get to a similar idea of "correctness above all".