You don't get to be "right twice" The question is When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads? It's n

You don't get to be "right twice" The question is When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads? It's not a guessing competition, it's asking you to assess the probability of a past event that you have no new information about.