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But that's still not the question. The stated question is When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?
by timv 11y ago
But that's still not the question.
The stated question is When you are awakened, to what degree should you believe that the outcome of the coin toss was Heads?
Not, Should you _guess_ Heads or Tails?
The probability of the coin toss _does not change_. The probability that "the reason they are waking you up is because the coin was Heads" does change, but that's not the question.
- Retric 11y agoClearly there is a 50:50 shot you get heads or tails from the coin. In your model of it's a 50:50 coin then you would have 50:25:25. The problem is waking up the second time does not reduce the odds of waking up the first time thus 50:50:50.