I think it boils down to the thirder position. P(monday,heads)=0,33 since P(heads)=0,5 and P(monday)=0,67. This is because we are sampling awakenings, not coi

I think it boils down to the thirder position. P(monday,heads)=0,33 since P(heads)=0,5 and P(monday)=0,67. This is because we are sampling awakenings, not coin tosses or beauties. It's like betting on a coin toss, but with a side twist that the bet is evaluated twice (no new toss) when the coin is tails. Hence a majority of evaluations will be on tails: Guess, Coin, Profit H, H, +1 H, T, -2 T, H, -1 T, T, +2 Analysis for betting heads: average is +1 + -2 = -1 Betting tails: average is -1 + +2 = +1. I'd bet tails!