4 ms·
Even if you get awakened 99 times with Tails, you have equal probability going down the Heads (1 awakening) or Tails (1/99 awakenings) paths. So if you awaken
by nicholas73 11y ago
Even if you get awakened 99 times with Tails, you have equal probability going down the Heads (1 awakening) or Tails (1/99 awakenings) paths.
So if you awaken with no knowledge of other awakenings, you are equally likely to be on either path, with the coin being Heads or Tails.
You are NOT equally likely to guess that your awakening was due to Heads or Tails however, and that's the paradox.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- ikeboy 11y agoThis is basically just asserting SSA. One problem with the halfer claim is that if you learn it is the first awakening, you then place much more probability on it landing heads (basic Bayes theorem application), even when the coin is yet to be flipped. How would you resolve that?