3 ms·
> ...Upon waking up, do you think the probability heads becomes 1/1001? Of course, do you really think otherwise? If I promised to put a pound in your moneybox
by hanoz 11y ago
> ...Upon waking up, do you think the probability heads becomes 1/1001?
Of course, do you really think otherwise? If I promised to put a pound in your moneybox every time you correctly guessed the coin state on each awakening, would you really fall to sleep confident in a 50/50 guess strategy in your 1000 awakenings to 1 scenario?
- lxw 11y agothe betting argument is not the same as what is being discussed. to a halver, the likelihood of heads and tails are still each 1/2, but the expected winnings of betting tails would of course be larger. it would be like saying i'll flip a coin, and if you guess correctly that it's tails i'll give you a million dollars. obviously i will guess that it's tails, even though i still believe each outcome is equally likely.