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Luck is just probability, and the Law of Large Numbers says that low-probability events are much more likely to happen if you sample repeatedly.
by eli_gottlieb 11y ago
Luck is just probability, and the Law of Large Numbers says that low-probability events are much more likely to happen if you sample repeatedly.
- ska 11y agoNo, luck is when your manage to get a sample that is much better than the expectation value. Of course this has to happen for some people, some of the time - but counting on it is irrational. There is nothing lucky about merely resampling until in expectation you should see the result you want. That's just doing the work.
- eli_gottlieb 11y ago>There is nothing lucky about merely resampling until in expectation you should see the result you want. That's just doing the work. That's just showing up.
- Frqy3 11y agoYou could also consider luck to be our sampling bias of only taking into account the successful outcomes. The population as a whole that is attempting to determine the 'next big thing (tm)' does the majority of the sampling (with a small amount of resampling from those who manage a second or third try). We then read the stories of the successful outcomes and call it luck.