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Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places

by hugh_ 17y ago

Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places?

arebop 17y ago
> Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? "Theoretical and climate model studies suggest that, in a climate that is warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, a greater increase is expected in extreme precipitation, as compared to the mean. Hence, anthropogenic influence may be easier to detect in extreme precipitation than in the mean. This is because extreme precipitation is controlled by the availability of water vapour, while mean precipitation is controlled by the ability of the atmosphere to radiate long-wave energy (released as latent heat by condensation) to space, and the latter is restricted by increasing greenhouse gases." --- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf > Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places? Yes, in fact some IPCC analysis suggests that North America will see e.g., increased crop variety and yields by 2080, and also e.g., a 40% decrease in Texan farmers' net income and more agricultural disease. But although climate change isn't uniformly and strictly bad news, it is likely that some places will see catastrophic effects and that in aggregate the changes will be more problematic than beneficial for humans.
- huherto 17y ago
  I live in Chihuahua Mexico. Definitely the amount of rain has increased in the last 2 or 3 years here. This is great news of the local economy. I figure it is like a lottery. If you already have a bad weather, it is more like for it to become better. On the global scale we may loose, but in the local scale some regions will be better of and some will be worse.
anigbrowl 17y ago
Didn't you mention being a physicist? I'm surprised you would assume that increasing the energy in a largely-closed complex system would tend towards greater equilibrium rather than exacerbating nonlinearities.

by hugh_ 17y ago

Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places?

arebop 17y ago

> Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? "Theoretical and climate model studies suggest that, in a climate that is warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, a greater increase is expected in extreme precipitation, as compared to the mean. Hence, anthropogenic influence may be easier to detect in extreme precipitation than in the mean. This is because extreme precipitation is controlled by the availability of water vapour, while mean precipitation is controlled by the ability of the atmosphere to radiate long-wave energy (released as latent heat by condensation) to space, and the latter is restricted by increasing greenhouse gases." --- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf > Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places? Yes, in fact some IPCC analysis suggests that North America will see e.g., increased crop variety and yields by 2080, and also e.g., a 40% decrease in Texan farmers' net income and more agricultural disease. But although climate change isn't uniformly and strictly bad news, it is likely that some places will see catastrophic effects and that in aggregate the changes will be more problematic than beneficial for humans.

huherto 17y ago
I live in Chihuahua Mexico. Definitely the amount of rain has increased in the last 2 or 3 years here. This is great news of the local economy. I figure it is like a lottery. If you already have a bad weather, it is more like for it to become better. On the global scale we may loose, but in the local scale some regions will be better of and some will be worse.

anigbrowl 17y ago

Didn't you mention being a physicist? I'm surprised you would assume that increasing the energy in a largely-closed complex system would tend towards greater equilibrium rather than exacerbating nonlinearities.