5 ms·

Catastrophic for many, not for all. In particular island nations, and nations already susceptible to drought.

hugh_ 17y ago
Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places?
- arebop 17y ago
  > Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? "Theoretical and climate model studies suggest that, in a climate that is warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, a greater increase is expected in extreme precipitation, as compared to the mean. Hence, anthropogenic influence may be easier to detect in extreme precipitation than in the mean. This is because extreme precipitation is controlled by the availability of water vapour, while mean precipitation is controlled by the ability of the atmosphere to radiate long-wave energy (released as latent heat by condensation) to space, and the latter is restricted by increasing greenhouse gases." --- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf > Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places? Yes, in fact some IPCC analysis suggests that North America will see e.g., increased crop variety and yields by 2080, and also e.g., a 40% decrease in Texan farmers' net income and more agricultural disease. But although climate change isn't uniformly and strictly bad news, it is likely that some places will see catastrophic effects and that in aggregate the changes will be more problematic than beneficial for humans.
  - huherto 17y ago
    I live in Chihuahua Mexico. Definitely the amount of rain has increased in the last 2 or 3 years here. This is great news of the local economy. I figure it is like a lottery. If you already have a bad weather, it is more like for it to become better. On the global scale we may loose, but in the local scale some regions will be better of and some will be worse.
- anigbrowl 17y ago
  Didn't you mention being a physicist? I'm surprised you would assume that increasing the energy in a largely-closed complex system would tend towards greater equilibrium rather than exacerbating nonlinearities.
yummyfajitas 17y ago
That's not a tragedy of the commons, it's a simple externality. It might be readily solvable simply by moving those people who are affected. For example, consider the Maldives, with 300,000 people making about $5k/year. Relocating every person in the Maldives to the US would probably be cheaper than most climate change solutions. This would also quadruple the standard of living of the average Maldivian, provided their income increases to the US poverty line.
- encoderer 17y ago
  Have you been to the maldives? I live in a particularly beautiful part of the US (Sarasota, FL) and I can say without question that moving to the Maldives would increase my standard of living. You're right that it would increase their incomes. But standard of living is much more than income...
  - gwern 17y ago
    If that is true, why not move there? Or are you a masochist?
    - ori_b 17y ago
      Activation barriers. Cutting ties to where you currently are may be sufficiently painful that moving isn't worth it, even if the end result is an increased standard of living.
      - gwern 17y ago
        If one has offspring, and they have offspring and so on, the gain from moving is indefinitely large and overwhelms any activation barrier. This suggests a new alternative: the poster is either barren or doesn't care about the standard of living of his offspring.
        philwelch 17y ago
        You left out a few possibilities: -The poster hadn't considered that argument -The poster doesn't want to have kids -The poster will have a finite number of descendants -The poster's concern for the standard of living of his distant descendants diminish according to distance (for instance, he probably cares a great deal for his children and a similar amount for his grandchildren, but by the time you're talking great-great-grandchildren his empathy has diminished significantly) -The poster's descendants will not want share his fondness for the Maldives -The poster's descendants will move away from the Maldives for other reasons I'm sure you can think of a half dozen other alternatives if you think for a minute.

hugh_ 17y ago

Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places?

arebop 17y ago
> Why should a changed climate result in worse droughts in places that are susceptible to drought? "Theoretical and climate model studies suggest that, in a climate that is warming due to increasing greenhouse gases, a greater increase is expected in extreme precipitation, as compared to the mean. Hence, anthropogenic influence may be easier to detect in extreme precipitation than in the mean. This is because extreme precipitation is controlled by the availability of water vapour, while mean precipitation is controlled by the ability of the atmosphere to radiate long-wave energy (released as latent heat by condensation) to space, and the latter is restricted by increasing greenhouse gases." --- http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical-papers/ccw/chapter2.pdf > Might it not lead to more rain in some drought-stricken places and less rain in some rainy places? Yes, in fact some IPCC analysis suggests that North America will see e.g., increased crop variety and yields by 2080, and also e.g., a 40% decrease in Texan farmers' net income and more agricultural disease. But although climate change isn't uniformly and strictly bad news, it is likely that some places will see catastrophic effects and that in aggregate the changes will be more problematic than beneficial for humans.
- huherto 17y ago
  I live in Chihuahua Mexico. Definitely the amount of rain has increased in the last 2 or 3 years here. This is great news of the local economy. I figure it is like a lottery. If you already have a bad weather, it is more like for it to become better. On the global scale we may loose, but in the local scale some regions will be better of and some will be worse.
anigbrowl 17y ago
Didn't you mention being a physicist? I'm surprised you would assume that increasing the energy in a largely-closed complex system would tend towards greater equilibrium rather than exacerbating nonlinearities.

yummyfajitas 17y ago

That's not a tragedy of the commons, it's a simple externality. It might be readily solvable simply by moving those people who are affected. For example, consider the Maldives, with 300,000 people making about $5k/year. Relocating every person in the Maldives to the US would probably be cheaper than most climate change solutions. This would also quadruple the standard of living of the average Maldivian, provided their income increases to the US poverty line.

encoderer 17y ago
Have you been to the maldives? I live in a particularly beautiful part of the US (Sarasota, FL) and I can say without question that moving to the Maldives would increase my standard of living. You're right that it would increase their incomes. But standard of living is much more than income...
- gwern 17y ago
  If that is true, why not move there? Or are you a masochist?
  - ori_b 17y ago
    Activation barriers. Cutting ties to where you currently are may be sufficiently painful that moving isn't worth it, even if the end result is an increased standard of living.
    - gwern 17y ago
      If one has offspring, and they have offspring and so on, the gain from moving is indefinitely large and overwhelms any activation barrier. This suggests a new alternative: the poster is either barren or doesn't care about the standard of living of his offspring.
      - philwelch 17y ago
        You left out a few possibilities: -The poster hadn't considered that argument -The poster doesn't want to have kids -The poster will have a finite number of descendants -The poster's concern for the standard of living of his distant descendants diminish according to distance (for instance, he probably cares a great deal for his children and a similar amount for his grandchildren, but by the time you're talking great-great-grandchildren his empathy has diminished significantly) -The poster's descendants will not want share his fondness for the Maldives -The poster's descendants will move away from the Maldives for other reasons I'm sure you can think of a half dozen other alternatives if you think for a minute.