> Why hasn't it happened before? Not because of how unlikely it is. It hadn't happened before because it hadn't happened before. Yes, that was the basis of my

> Why hasn't it happened before? Not because of how unlikely it is. It hadn't happened before because it hadn't happened before. Yes, that was the basis of my analogy. I do indeed think those situations are similar for that reason. > But a long term downward trend in the stock market? Means death for a nation's economy. Well, you're forgetting the idea of a steady-state stable non-growing non-shrinking economy, which is one possibility (see spain: https://www.google.com/finance?q=MADX%3AIND&ei=p5LcVYr0EI6S2Aatm4igCA https://www.google.com/finance?q=MADX%3AIND&ei=p5LcVYr0EI6S2...) But even talking about down-trends, I think "death" is a bit strong. It could also indicate a gradual transition to a lower stable position. Plenty of economies survive at small sizes.