5 ms·

Ask HN: It used to be that when stocks fall, Bitcoin goes up. What happened?

10 points by traviagio 11y ago

T-A 11y ago
This? http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-slumps-following-bitfinex-outage/ http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-slumps-following-bitfi...
traviagio 11y ago
I am not talking about a temporary flashcrash. People used to think of Bitcoin as a safe heaven when else goes downhill. Just like gold. I don't think that's the case anymore.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- vectorpush 11y ago
  > People used to think of Bitcoin as a safe heaven when else goes downhill I don't really think this is true. There might be some bitcoin enthusiasts who hold this view, but I haven't seen any evidence of this belief in the wider finance community.
Kinnard 11y ago
There are too many factors to tease out what's going on at any given moment. There may be upward pressure from what's happening in equity markets and demand for bitcoin as a vehicle currency[1] to get ether, and there may be downward pressure because of a possible hard fork as well as the outage of a major exchange. If you really knew what caused what with the bitcoin price, that'd be really special information and you'd be a very special person. You can make your best guesses as to which forces will dominate. And you can be wrong. These dynamics change as the scope changes. [1] http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency
ant6n 11y ago
Gold was also down today.
- Falkon1313 11y ago
  Silver and gold both seem to be dropping lower than they've been in years. Legend has it that when stocks go down, precious metals should go up. But what if gold, silver, and stocks were all in a bubble at once? They all kind of look bubbly by the long-term charts. Would that signify that we're finally reaching the end of the recession, or that we're beginning a new one?
aminorex 11y ago
Andresen and Hearn are forking the blockchain. The future of bitcoin thus becomes clouded.
bbcbasic 11y ago
I thought bitcoin went up on hype, down on fear. Opening up China markets, for example pushed the price up to over $1000. Then that hype died, along with MtGox and here we are.
- davidgerard 11y ago
  > Opening up China markets, for example pushed the price up to over $1000. I thought it was pretty established that (a) that was Willybot (b) there was no exchange you could actually get dollars out (so, not Mt. Gox) of where the price was over $1000.
  - Phlarp 11y ago
    (a) seems to be the generally accepted reason behind the runup to $1200 but (b) is patently false. I sold coins on coinbase and mtgox during this period and received deposits of USD within the week. The amounts were all below the six figure mark, so perhaps there were individuals with million dollar or more holdings that had issues finding instant liquidity. However, I imagine this is true of almost all assets of comparable size.
    - davidgerard 11y ago
      When were you getting money out of Mt Gox up to?
      - Phlarp 11y ago
        I cashed out all of my bitcoin holdings during the boom times so I can't speak for anything past October of 2013, but I believe Gox was still cashing out to USD until mid December or so(?) and Yen for a few weeks past that. Honestly, anybody that left USD or BTC funds in Gox wallets for longer than a day deserved to lose them at that point in time. All the reasons were known then just as they are now-- if you don't personally hold and secure the private key, you don't actually own bitcoin. If you can't handle securing it (both from theft and loss) you shouldn't participate in the market as a speculator.
deciplex 11y ago
Perhaps we have finally found the one thing that, apparently, is not good for Bitcoin.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
davidgerard 11y ago
Bitcoin is so thinly traded that it's hard to say anything useful on price movements and outside events. Look at the spam attack - Bitcoin was all but unusable, and the price went up.

10 points by traviagio 11y ago

T-A 11y ago

This? http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-slumps-following-bitfinex-outage/ http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-slumps-following-bitfi...

traviagio 11y ago

I am not talking about a temporary flashcrash. People used to think of Bitcoin as a safe heaven when else goes downhill. Just like gold. I don't think that's the case anymore.

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
vectorpush 11y ago
> People used to think of Bitcoin as a safe heaven when else goes downhill I don't really think this is true. There might be some bitcoin enthusiasts who hold this view, but I haven't seen any evidence of this belief in the wider finance community.

Kinnard 11y ago

There are too many factors to tease out what's going on at any given moment. There may be upward pressure from what's happening in equity markets and demand for bitcoin as a vehicle currency[1] to get ether, and there may be downward pressure because of a possible hard fork as well as the outage of a major exchange. If you really knew what caused what with the bitcoin price, that'd be really special information and you'd be a very special person. You can make your best guesses as to which forces will dominate. And you can be wrong. These dynamics change as the scope changes. [1] http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency http://www.answers.com/Q/What_is_a_vehicle_currency

ant6n 11y ago

Gold was also down today.

Falkon1313 11y ago
Silver and gold both seem to be dropping lower than they've been in years. Legend has it that when stocks go down, precious metals should go up. But what if gold, silver, and stocks were all in a bubble at once? They all kind of look bubbly by the long-term charts. Would that signify that we're finally reaching the end of the recession, or that we're beginning a new one?

aminorex 11y ago

Andresen and Hearn are forking the blockchain. The future of bitcoin thus becomes clouded.

bbcbasic 11y ago

I thought bitcoin went up on hype, down on fear. Opening up China markets, for example pushed the price up to over $1000. Then that hype died, along with MtGox and here we are.

davidgerard 11y ago
> Opening up China markets, for example pushed the price up to over $1000. I thought it was pretty established that (a) that was Willybot (b) there was no exchange you could actually get dollars out (so, not Mt. Gox) of where the price was over $1000.
- Phlarp 11y ago
  (a) seems to be the generally accepted reason behind the runup to $1200 but (b) is patently false. I sold coins on coinbase and mtgox during this period and received deposits of USD within the week. The amounts were all below the six figure mark, so perhaps there were individuals with million dollar or more holdings that had issues finding instant liquidity. However, I imagine this is true of almost all assets of comparable size.
  - davidgerard 11y ago
    When were you getting money out of Mt Gox up to?
    - Phlarp 11y ago
      I cashed out all of my bitcoin holdings during the boom times so I can't speak for anything past October of 2013, but I believe Gox was still cashing out to USD until mid December or so(?) and Yen for a few weeks past that. Honestly, anybody that left USD or BTC funds in Gox wallets for longer than a day deserved to lose them at that point in time. All the reasons were known then just as they are now-- if you don't personally hold and secure the private key, you don't actually own bitcoin. If you can't handle securing it (both from theft and loss) you shouldn't participate in the market as a speculator.

deciplex 11y ago

Perhaps we have finally found the one thing that, apparently, is not good for Bitcoin.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

davidgerard 11y ago

Bitcoin is so thinly traded that it's hard to say anything useful on price movements and outside events. Look at the spam attack - Bitcoin was all but unusable, and the price went up.