5 ms·
> most people really shouldn't be paying attention eh, IDK about that. I was cooping at a company that bottomed to $2.50 ~February 2008. I had been reading eve
by rancur 11y ago
> most people really shouldn't be paying attention
eh, IDK about that. I was cooping at a company that bottomed to $2.50 ~February 2008. I had been reading everything I could get my hands on regarding the Fed, their history, and general fiscal policy. I had about $7k in cash I was planning to dump into the company's ticker.
But in February, when it was $2.50, I wasn't quite confident of my analysis.
In May or so I had completed my replica-painting of the full picture, I was sure enough to make a jump. Unfortunately the stock had rebounded to ~$9 by then. I'd missed my chance, Fed had already moved, markets were assured, life was continuing on as normal. They later got bought out (4 years later) for $22/share. Would have wiped out my student debt.
Note, this was not trading on any special insider information I had, it was simply my personal analysis of the stability of the company's business model in a rough economic environment, combined with confidence in Bernanke's unwillingness to permit much of any form of market turmoil (he received his PhD for his analysis of what the Fed did wrong that lead to the great depression-- conclusion: not nearly enough).
off topic: my next BUY recommendation was ARMH in 2010 ~$12.50. I figured nobody could be so much dumber than me and my expertise to not also see the imminent growth of the smartphone market at a time when half of everyone I knew were still on flipphones. So then I checked later and they'd made it all the way to $30-something.
so then I said to myself 'no more' and bought NVDA at $16, but had to sell at $12 for other reasons. Lol.
- redwood 11y agothis is dangerous stuff because you're implying that a few success stories or missed opportunities are representative of what folks can expect
- rancur 11y agono...each should be very careful...in my case, I was dead right twice. The third was a wash, and is why I don't bother unless I'm 100% certain (which I wasn't, the third time)
- redwood 11y agoDon't mislead the inexperienced: there is no such thing as 100% certainty unless you're peddling something or being peddled abd then it's gambling and luck and manipulation and a game of chicken.