I almost entirely agree with you, just wanted to add a bit more colour to your comments on Canada and Saudi Arabia. Canada is clearly in recession but I don't

I almost entirely agree with you, just wanted to add a bit more colour to your comments on Canada and Saudi Arabia. Canada is clearly in recession but I don't think we can call it a "serious" recession yet. So far more of a mild contraction (but pretty terrible if you focus in on energy). I do think the rest of the economy is lagging behind energy and bad times are ahead overall, especially with so much of Canadian growth/prosperity tied to the housing boom. I'm probably preaching to the choir here, but seriously: when the prime minister promises a home renovation tax credit during his reelection campaign - and explicitly states he's doing to help boost the value of Canadians' homes - you've gotta know people are captured by the real estate boom narrative. On Saudi, they can afford low oil prices for a while and can just borrow if they need to. Super low debt around 3% of GDP, low cost basis as you say, and they've done this before and come back from it (100% debt-to-GDP in the 90s o the back of low oil prices). I've seen interesting speculation that Saudi is willing to hurt a bit from cheap oil because it'll hurt an increasingly-economically-integrated Iran more.