5 ms·

>people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time "People" are expecting a correction 100% of the time, so the forecast is pretty much usel

>people were expecting a correction in the stock market for some time "People" are expecting a correction 100% of the time, so the forecast is pretty much useless. If it was truly anticipated, it wouldn't happen. Action, like that which occurred at opening this morning, is sheer panic.

gmarx 11y ago
That isn't true. People expect a correction when there has been a long run up in prices and when those prices are high relative to, for example, earnings. This has been the case for quite some time. On the other hand when the S&P hit the 600s in 2008 (or was it 2007?) I doubt anyone was anticipating a correction
- forgetsusername 11y ago
  >high relative to, for example, earnings. This has been the case for quite some time. Well, the Shiller CAPE has been "relatively high" (above the mean) since about 1998. So, I guess we agree that people have been calling for corrections the whole time. And it's useless.
alyx 11y ago
I'm interested to hear other people's experiences. I have a 100k trading portfolio and I have sold/bought nothing in the last week. Thoughts on who's doing all this downward trading?
- harmegido 11y ago
  Individual investors really don't impact prices. It's big funds that are able to do very large trades that have an impact on supply/demand. And I'd also point out that nothing has to be bought/sold for prices to move, although volume does spike when prices move downwards. I'm curious about your terminology. 100k is quite a bit for most people. Is that your 'trading' portfolio or your 'investing' portfolio? If it's the latter, I suggest you keep doing what you are doing (i.e. nothing).
  - jdmichal 11y ago
    I'd actually be looking at buying with a big down move. Not with all my cash, because trying to time bottoms is a bad idea. Buy with 1/3 or 1/4 cash whenever there's a significant drop and you should average out pretty well without having to time.
- forgetsusername 11y ago
  >Thoughts on who's doing all this downward trading? I imagine at least some of it is hedgies being crushed by oil sub-$40 as well as the AAPL correction (which was the #1 holding for a lot of funds). Lots of paper being re-positioned. It was absolutely nuts this morning. VIG, which is the dividend growth ETF, composed of large-stock US companies, was down 18% at one point! I couldn't get any buys filled, though.
  - anonu 11y ago
    I think this was due to a rogue market-maker with bad algos. Market data was all over the place this morning. Nobody had a clear view on what the market order book looked like. I'm pretty sure theres a market-making firm out there that may not be in business tomorrow.
- ihaveajob 11y ago
  I have about 1/4 as much, mostly from past employee stock purchase plans in big tech. I'm regretting not having sold 6 months ago, but I'm not inclined to sell now either.
- EliRivers 11y ago
  I've placed orders to buy one of my favoured indices today (which should turn into an actual purchase on Wednesday), and I wish I had more cash to invest at the moment.

gmarx 11y ago

That isn't true. People expect a correction when there has been a long run up in prices and when those prices are high relative to, for example, earnings. This has been the case for quite some time. On the other hand when the S&P hit the 600s in 2008 (or was it 2007?) I doubt anyone was anticipating a correction

forgetsusername 11y ago
>high relative to, for example, earnings. This has been the case for quite some time. Well, the Shiller CAPE has been "relatively high" (above the mean) since about 1998. So, I guess we agree that people have been calling for corrections the whole time. And it's useless.

alyx 11y ago

I'm interested to hear other people's experiences. I have a 100k trading portfolio and I have sold/bought nothing in the last week. Thoughts on who's doing all this downward trading?

harmegido 11y ago
Individual investors really don't impact prices. It's big funds that are able to do very large trades that have an impact on supply/demand. And I'd also point out that nothing has to be bought/sold for prices to move, although volume does spike when prices move downwards. I'm curious about your terminology. 100k is quite a bit for most people. Is that your 'trading' portfolio or your 'investing' portfolio? If it's the latter, I suggest you keep doing what you are doing (i.e. nothing).
- jdmichal 11y ago
  I'd actually be looking at buying with a big down move. Not with all my cash, because trying to time bottoms is a bad idea. Buy with 1/3 or 1/4 cash whenever there's a significant drop and you should average out pretty well without having to time.
forgetsusername 11y ago
>Thoughts on who's doing all this downward trading? I imagine at least some of it is hedgies being crushed by oil sub-$40 as well as the AAPL correction (which was the #1 holding for a lot of funds). Lots of paper being re-positioned. It was absolutely nuts this morning. VIG, which is the dividend growth ETF, composed of large-stock US companies, was down 18% at one point! I couldn't get any buys filled, though.
- anonu 11y ago
  I think this was due to a rogue market-maker with bad algos. Market data was all over the place this morning. Nobody had a clear view on what the market order book looked like. I'm pretty sure theres a market-making firm out there that may not be in business tomorrow.
ihaveajob 11y ago
I have about 1/4 as much, mostly from past employee stock purchase plans in big tech. I'm regretting not having sold 6 months ago, but I'm not inclined to sell now either.
EliRivers 11y ago
I've placed orders to buy one of my favoured indices today (which should turn into an actual purchase on Wednesday), and I wish I had more cash to invest at the moment.