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I'm guessing most HN commenters don't have the liquidity to become rich off a crash, unless they had knowledge in specific industries and companies that were se

I'm guessing most HN commenters don't have the liquidity to become rich off a crash, unless they had knowledge in specific industries and companies that were set to get hit hardest. Not all Chinese sectors of industry are equally hurt by this collapse. Besides, it wasn't just this commenter who predicted it. Many have before. In fact, even the laypress TV news like 60-Minutes have pointed out issues that will cause major growing pains to China. Run a Google search, click "Search Tools", and query the date range from the beginning of last year to end of Spring this year.

peteretep 11y ago
People have been saying the Chinese economy will crash for well over a decade. Wish I'd gone all in ten years ago...
nostrademons 11y ago
The problem is that many people are continously predicting a crash. If you grant that they're right now, you also have to grant that they've been wrong for years. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.
- JoeAltmaier 11y ago
  Not fair. A well-regulated system would NEVER crash. That this one does, and folks predicted it, has nothing to do with timing, and everything to do with cogent analysis of a flawed system.
  - ubernostrum 11y ago
    Predicting market crashes is like predicting the end of the world. When it actually happens (in both cases), there will be some subset of people whose published prediction is close to or even exactly matches the date when it finally did happen, and those people will gloat about it. But for every one of those people there are thousands, possibly millions or more others whose prediction dates came and went with no catastrophe occurring. Given the huge number of people who publish their predictions, then, we have to ask which of these is more likely: 1. The people who got the date right -- either exact, or within a certain small window of the actual date -- had some genuinely deep insight missed by others, which allowed them and only them to make a correct prediction, or 2. Given a large enough segment of people making predictions, some subset of them will have their predicted date match the actual date purely by chance. For example, predicting market trends five years out only gives five years in which something can happen, or twenty quarters, or sixty months, or 260 weeks, or 1,826 days to peg your predictions onto. If the number of people making predictions is large enough, all dates are likely be covered by at least one prediction.
  - AnimalMuppet 11y ago
    Perhaps not. But by that definition, this isn't a crash, either. It is a rapid but orderly sell-off, and while we don't like it, it (by itself) does not indicate flaws in the system.
- AnimalMuppet 11y ago
  However, it is possible for a clock to be running but set to the wrong time, and therefore never right...

peteretep 11y ago

People have been saying the Chinese economy will crash for well over a decade. Wish I'd gone all in ten years ago...

nostrademons 11y ago

The problem is that many people are continously predicting a crash. If you grant that they're right now, you also have to grant that they've been wrong for years. Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

JoeAltmaier 11y ago
Not fair. A well-regulated system would NEVER crash. That this one does, and folks predicted it, has nothing to do with timing, and everything to do with cogent analysis of a flawed system.
- ubernostrum 11y ago
  Predicting market crashes is like predicting the end of the world. When it actually happens (in both cases), there will be some subset of people whose published prediction is close to or even exactly matches the date when it finally did happen, and those people will gloat about it. But for every one of those people there are thousands, possibly millions or more others whose prediction dates came and went with no catastrophe occurring. Given the huge number of people who publish their predictions, then, we have to ask which of these is more likely: 1. The people who got the date right -- either exact, or within a certain small window of the actual date -- had some genuinely deep insight missed by others, which allowed them and only them to make a correct prediction, or 2. Given a large enough segment of people making predictions, some subset of them will have their predicted date match the actual date purely by chance. For example, predicting market trends five years out only gives five years in which something can happen, or twenty quarters, or sixty months, or 260 weeks, or 1,826 days to peg your predictions onto. If the number of people making predictions is large enough, all dates are likely be covered by at least one prediction.
- AnimalMuppet 11y ago
  Perhaps not. But by that definition, this isn't a crash, either. It is a rapid but orderly sell-off, and while we don't like it, it (by itself) does not indicate flaws in the system.
AnimalMuppet 11y ago
However, it is possible for a clock to be running but set to the wrong time, and therefore never right...