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Note: I've been slow banned for this comment. Please read it, I'm sure a hell ban is coming next. Apparently having a different opinion politely expressed is n
by MCRed 11y ago
Note: I've been slow banned for this comment. Please read it, I'm sure a hell ban is coming next. Apparently having a different opinion politely expressed is not even allowed here anymore.
Debt to Income- yes everyone and their dog walker is not out there buying condos hoping to flip them in 3 years, so we are less leveraged than we were. Hard to tell how much of this is because people have more money coming in or are more responsible having just gotten burned 7 years ago.
Capitalization of Companies-- well we've had significant monetary inflation, have you accounted for that? Ok, now have you accounted for that using the real money supply?
Productiivty- this is the result of technology, should continue to increase.
Oil Prices- Oil prices are shockingly low, especially when you account for inflation. This is good as energy drives the economy... but it hasn't been this way long enough to see real economic effects that are lasting, yet.
Savings Rates-- well, compared to 2006 when everyone was leveraged to the hilt to buy just one more condo, sure they are better. But are they actually good?
Housing Prices-- "healthy" is also what they said in 2006. The monetary inflation that drove the housing bubble in 2000-2008 was only amped up after 2008. The spigot is open even wider now, and while we're clearly not in the mania we were in 2006, it's not obvious that these prices aren't also.... quite artificial.
I'd like a stat that was EBIDTA of the S&P 500, inflation adjusted against the real money supply, over the past 30 years. I think that would be a good indicator.
- forgetsusername 11y ago>having a different opinion politely expressed Do you honestly think you're expressing a different opinion by stating that everything is mostly bad? I'd say you're comfortably in the internet majority. >I'd like a stat that was EBIDTA of the S&P 500, inflation adjusted against the real money supply, over the past 30 years. Okay: http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/ http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-earnings/
- AnimalMuppet 11y agoThat's not quite what MCRed asked for. He/she asked for "inflation adjusted against the real money supply". Elsewhere in the post MCRed also said something about the real money supply. I think the background idea is that "real inflation" = "change in the real money supply". But that's wrong, because the economy changes size, too. That is, if I start a company and make some stuff, the economy is now bigger than it was. If the number of dollars doesn't increase, then the value of each dollar has to increase, so prices go down - deflation. What the Fed is trying to do is keep the value of the dollar (relatively) constant, rather than keep the number of dollars constant. So I think MCRed's request (to the degree that it differed from your answer) is based on a mistaken idea...
- achompas 11y agoSavings Rates-- well, compared to 2006 when everyone was leveraged to the hilt to buy just one more condo, sure they are better. But are they actually good? Well they're higher now than they were 15 years ago: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PSAVERT and just slightly off the average over the last two contractions (highlighted in gray).