4 ms·

Warren Buffett says "If you're buying hamburger your whole life, do you want the price to be low or high?" For me, the situation is such a mess that I don't th

by MCRed 11y ago

Warren Buffett says "If you're buying hamburger your whole life, do you want the price to be low or high?" For me, the situation is such a mess that I don't think we're close yet to what I would consider a buying opportunity. One saying is "buy when there's blood in the streets"... but I don't think we're there yet. Downvoted and slow banned. Why do I even contribute to this site?

FilterSweep 11y ago
When I saw the articles in my local newspaper over the weekend of this happening, I figured its almost time for me, a fresh college graduate, to jump into the markets. But considering how profound the issues of Chinese Real Estate bubble are - they were paying people to make it look like empty, recently-built, luxury apartment complexes had people actually living in them - I think the worst is yet to come and I'm still waiting.[0] [1] [0] RE Homes: http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chinese-cities-are-empty-survey-says-1402484499 http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chines... [1] RE Apartments: http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/200-million-empty-apartments-chinas-complex-property-market-21-12.html http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-new...
- kchoudhu 11y ago
  I'll tell you what I told my little sister (who is in your shoes, i.e. just starting to save after graduating from college): you won't be using the money you're investing for 30+ years. Just invest, stop trying to time markets. It's going to be okay.
- distances 11y ago
  Just start monthly investments into index funds / ETFs. Start with small sums if that makes it better, but do start with monthly (automated?) investments. I kind of hope someone would have pointed me to the right direction years earlier. In case you're worrying of buying at the top: it's still a good idea. There's a very nice article [0] of what would have happened to an imaginary investor if he always bought at market peaks only, and held between the peaks. [0] http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/
- svachalek 11y ago
  The "ghost cities" stories are really popular on some sites but if you want another point of view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyBBQ-wF87M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyBBQ-wF87M I do believe that Chinese real estate is in a bubble but the markets there work very, very differently than they do in the West so it's best not to try to infer too much from 10:00 news stories.
carsongross 11y ago
I know, anything even remotely non-permabull is nuked for bad feels about The Strongest Economy In Years. Alright, as a fellow traveller, let me help you. I'm going to make some observations and then give you my magic key to dealing with this market: - Picking individual stocks is very difficult unless you are Buffett-tier - The low-cost index funders have a very strong argument - That being said, there are obvious long term momentum trends in the broad market, the efficient market guys are a joke - Daily and even weekly movements have too much noise to be worth looking at - Monthly is actually pretty good though - Sitting in cash for any extended period is almost impossible for most investors and flat out impossible for funds (competitive advantage alert!) So, putting that all together, you have the following thought: "What if do index investing and I use momentum measurements of the broad market on a monthly basis to try to avoid the shit-show pullbacks." I use the monthly MACD of the S&P 500, and it has worked very well: invest when MACD is positive, get more conservative as it goes to zero, start selling when it goes negative, sit in cash and wait for the faster moving average to reverse on a monthly basis. No one believes me, and you shouldn't either. But there it is.

by MCRed 11y ago

FilterSweep 11y ago

When I saw the articles in my local newspaper over the weekend of this happening, I figured its almost time for me, a fresh college graduate, to jump into the markets. But considering how profound the issues of Chinese Real Estate bubble are - they were paying people to make it look like empty, recently-built, luxury apartment complexes had people actually living in them - I think the worst is yet to come and I'm still waiting.[0] [1] [0] RE Homes: http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chinese-cities-are-empty-survey-says-1402484499 http://www.wsj.com/articles/more-than-1-in-5-homes-in-chines... [1] RE Apartments: http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-news/200-million-empty-apartments-chinas-complex-property-market-21-12.html http://www.economywatch.com/economy-business-and-finance-new...

kchoudhu 11y ago
I'll tell you what I told my little sister (who is in your shoes, i.e. just starting to save after graduating from college): you won't be using the money you're investing for 30+ years. Just invest, stop trying to time markets. It's going to be okay.
distances 11y ago
Just start monthly investments into index funds / ETFs. Start with small sums if that makes it better, but do start with monthly (automated?) investments. I kind of hope someone would have pointed me to the right direction years earlier. In case you're worrying of buying at the top: it's still a good idea. There's a very nice article [0] of what would have happened to an imaginary investor if he always bought at market peaks only, and held between the peaks. [0] http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/ http://awealthofcommonsense.com/worlds-worst-market-timer/
svachalek 11y ago
The "ghost cities" stories are really popular on some sites but if you want another point of view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyBBQ-wF87M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AyBBQ-wF87M I do believe that Chinese real estate is in a bubble but the markets there work very, very differently than they do in the West so it's best not to try to infer too much from 10:00 news stories.

carsongross 11y ago

I know, anything even remotely non-permabull is nuked for bad feels about The Strongest Economy In Years. Alright, as a fellow traveller, let me help you. I'm going to make some observations and then give you my magic key to dealing with this market: - Picking individual stocks is very difficult unless you are Buffett-tier - The low-cost index funders have a very strong argument - That being said, there are obvious long term momentum trends in the broad market, the efficient market guys are a joke - Daily and even weekly movements have too much noise to be worth looking at - Monthly is actually pretty good though - Sitting in cash for any extended period is almost impossible for most investors and flat out impossible for funds (competitive advantage alert!) So, putting that all together, you have the following thought: "What if do index investing and I use momentum measurements of the broad market on a monthly basis to try to avoid the shit-show pullbacks." I use the monthly MACD of the S&P 500, and it has worked very well: invest when MACD is positive, get more conservative as it goes to zero, start selling when it goes negative, sit in cash and wait for the faster moving average to reverse on a monthly basis. No one believes me, and you shouldn't either. But there it is.