4 ms·

The participation rate is down 3.3% from 2005 [1]. Given the huge shift in demographics over the last 10 years [2], I don't think that's a data point that screa

The participation rate is down 3.3% from 2005 [1]. Given the huge shift in demographics over the last 10 years [2], I don't think that's a data point that screams "smashed." [1] http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 [2] Lost of baby boomers retiring and Gen X being such a small demo compared to the boomers and the millennials.

cryoshon 11y ago
The demographic shift angle doesn't make sense. The boomers are slowly exiting the workforce, sure-- on an individual basis, as they can choose to retire at different times. Many are having to defer retirement or not retire. This isn't an orderly mass exit, it's a trickle. Millenials are a far larger generation than the boomers, and are rapidly leaving college and attempting to enter the workforce-- 100% of them are trying to enter the workforce at the same time, immediately after graduation day. The fact that labor participation rates haven't stabilized or even increased in response to their population level attempts to enter the workforce shows that there really are not enough jobs to go around. Jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned, and there are many more people out and about looking for them now than there were before. Boomers are retiring, but their children are desperate to take their place, which isn't actually possible.
- achompas 11y ago
  The fact that labor participation rates haven't stabilized or even increased in response to their population level attempts to enter the workforce shows that there really are not enough jobs to go around. I'm not sure the data bears this out. If they're looking they're in the labor force, and we'd see a commensurate rise in unemployment for age groups 20-24. That's clearly not the case, as unemployment is down ~1.5% for that demo since mid-2014: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm I don't have demo-level participation data available but that would clarify whether rates are lower bc of millenial LF dropout or millenial employment success.
- wiremine 11y ago
  > Millenials are a far larger generation than the boomers Depends on your definition of "far larger". - The Millennial cohort is 83.1 million - The Boomer cohort is 75.4 million, 90% the size of the Millennials. Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113...
- wiremine 11y ago
  > Jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned There are actually more jobs now then there were in 2005: - January 2005: 132,752,000 - January 2015: 140,793,000 Source: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1 http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=w... Obviously the _type_ of jobs have changed, and this doesn't factor in population growth directly, but I don't think the statement "jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned" isn't grounded in the data.

cryoshon 11y ago

The demographic shift angle doesn't make sense. The boomers are slowly exiting the workforce, sure-- on an individual basis, as they can choose to retire at different times. Many are having to defer retirement or not retire. This isn't an orderly mass exit, it's a trickle. Millenials are a far larger generation than the boomers, and are rapidly leaving college and attempting to enter the workforce-- 100% of them are trying to enter the workforce at the same time, immediately after graduation day. The fact that labor participation rates haven't stabilized or even increased in response to their population level attempts to enter the workforce shows that there really are not enough jobs to go around. Jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned, and there are many more people out and about looking for them now than there were before. Boomers are retiring, but their children are desperate to take their place, which isn't actually possible.

achompas 11y ago
The fact that labor participation rates haven't stabilized or even increased in response to their population level attempts to enter the workforce shows that there really are not enough jobs to go around. I'm not sure the data bears this out. If they're looking they're in the labor force, and we'd see a commensurate rise in unemployment for age groups 20-24. That's clearly not the case, as unemployment is down ~1.5% for that demo since mid-2014: http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cpseea10.htm I don't have demo-level participation data available but that would clarify whether rates are lower bc of millenial LF dropout or millenial employment success.
wiremine 11y ago
> Millenials are a far larger generation than the boomers Depends on your definition of "far larger". - The Millennial cohort is 83.1 million - The Boomer cohort is 75.4 million, 90% the size of the Millennials. Source: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113.html https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2015/cb15-113...
wiremine 11y ago
> Jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned There are actually more jobs now then there were in 2005: - January 2005: 132,752,000 - January 2015: 140,793,000 Source: http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1 http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?request_action=w... Obviously the _type_ of jobs have changed, and this doesn't factor in population growth directly, but I don't think the statement "jobs lost in the early depression haven't returned" isn't grounded in the data.