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(words from Venezuelan living in Venezuela) Actually, external debt in foreing currency is not an important factor in what's happenig. Even with the oil price

by gassius 11y ago

(words from Venezuelan living in Venezuela) Actually, external debt in foreing currency is not an important factor in what's happenig. Even with the oil price collapse in the last 12 months, Venezuela current account balance is positive, and it's debt to GDP ratio is a lot more manageable that US or EU (although of course that depends on which exchange rate you calculate the GDP). The hyperinflation (which we are not on the brink of, we are already living through) is caused, IMHO, by three primary reasons (each one is composed or caused by several others). 1- The total dependency of external supply, well in finished goods or inputs for production. Last reliable numbers put us in order of 90% of everything we consume is either imported or requires imported material to produce. 2- The lack of enough cash to import either consumers goods or prime materials to produce 3- The irresponsible printing of inorganic Bolivares. Any short of resetting the economy, which may or may not include dollarization (or eurozation), is useless at this point, but once we are done with that, it will take maybe 3 years or less to sort this mess.

dev360 11y ago
Question for you - to what extent does the Venezuelan gov. interfere and control the means of production and distribution of everyday household products? When I lived in Miami, we were fed incessant articles and anecdotes from Venezuelan emigrants about how the government meddled with the allocation of basic household goods.
- gassius 11y ago
  Right now, interferes a lot, but as far as control goes, nobody is controlling anything. Since middle of last year, they started meddling with how supermarkets sells to customers, for example, you can go to a supermarket only two days a week to buy "price regulated products" which are every simple thing like pasta, milk, flour, meat, cleansing products, soap, shampoo etc. Also they are trying to implement a biometric system so you can buy only certain number of such products once you are validated with your fingerprints. But of course they have botcheted that as well, so now you are fingerprinted but on the 2 days a week your are allowed to go, is a nightmare. Probably the most of Venezuelan expats in Miami are antichavistas, but I tell you one thing, nothing like this happened while Chavez was alive. OTOH, it seems obvious that the problems of today are rooted in some of Chavez's policies.

by gassius 11y ago

dev360 11y ago

Question for you - to what extent does the Venezuelan gov. interfere and control the means of production and distribution of everyday household products? When I lived in Miami, we were fed incessant articles and anecdotes from Venezuelan emigrants about how the government meddled with the allocation of basic household goods.

gassius 11y ago
Right now, interferes a lot, but as far as control goes, nobody is controlling anything. Since middle of last year, they started meddling with how supermarkets sells to customers, for example, you can go to a supermarket only two days a week to buy "price regulated products" which are every simple thing like pasta, milk, flour, meat, cleansing products, soap, shampoo etc. Also they are trying to implement a biometric system so you can buy only certain number of such products once you are validated with your fingerprints. But of course they have botcheted that as well, so now you are fingerprinted but on the 2 days a week your are allowed to go, is a nightmare. Probably the most of Venezuelan expats in Miami are antichavistas, but I tell you one thing, nothing like this happened while Chavez was alive. OTOH, it seems obvious that the problems of today are rooted in some of Chavez's policies.