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I'm a former over the road truck driver who hauled truckload freight. I disagree profoundly that self driving trucks are the future, the future is multimodal t

by Aloha 11y ago

I'm a former over the road truck driver who hauled truckload freight. I disagree profoundly that self driving trucks are the future, the future is multimodal transport, even now a significant proportion of long haul (greater than 3-600 miles) is already on the rail, either in the form of a container or piggyback. The issue that keeps the remaining long haul (greater than 600 miles) on the road (vs rail) is timing, when you put something on the rail, you loose a day or so at one end in loading/classifying and another in classifying/unloading. That time loss is something that in all but a few situations can be accommodated for by extra planning - but it requires the planning and consent of the shipper and consignee to do so - the trucking and rail companies are already on board as shipping by rail is much cheaper/easier. For LTL companies, most of their drivers only run from terminal to terminal, and the distance driven and time spent is much much lower, but even with them, a crossdock transload facility where one side is a truck dock, and the other is a railcar could for example cut down on some logistics pain - but it still would incur additional delay due to the machinations required by the railroad to switch and deliver cars in their network. Another complicating factor is reefers, right now each refer either has a generator attached (for containers) to it powered by diesel fuel, or has a diesel powered refrigeration unit on the trailer - this for the rail could be replaced by freight trains with HEP (head end power) to power the refrigeration units - but to do so requires a sizable investment by everyone involved (rail cars that support such a system, cans and trailers that support such a system, and transit yards that can supply the power to keep everything cold) Even with the challenges, in 20-30 years, I'd expect only 10% of truckload miles to be actually hauled end to end by a truck, the rest of it should go on the rail, then be carried the proverbial last mile (in reality couple hundred miles) by a truck. As a former driver, in my opinion the issue is not the HOS (hours of service) rules, its the way companies, especially many smaller ones dispatch their drivers - you can be expected to go from working days, to working nights instantly, and it can really fuck hardcore with your sleep schedule.

Silhouette 11y ago
The issue that keeps the remaining long haul (greater than 600 miles) on the road (vs rail) is timing, when you put something on the rail, you loose a day or so at one end in loading/classifying and another in classifying/unloading. That's an interesting comment. Modern container ships and the infrastructure that supports them are surely one of the most effective logistical developments in human history, transferring huge volumes of cargo between the ships and road/rail at either end with impressive efficiency. It seems like you're suggesting that road/rail links bring in more of an overhead, despite the lower volumes on a train vs. a ship. Is that a fair conclusion from what you're saying? If that's reasonably accurate, what do you think causes those extra overheads? Is it the wider variety of loads instead of everything being in standard shipping containers, the need for power to support some of them that you mentioned, or maybe just the need for better loading/unloading systems at road/rail transfers?
- Aloha 11y ago
  I think any multimodal transport has an inherent lag - and I don't think its worth the effort to get the lag out - beyond that because of the inherent delays (you gotta sort the railcar onto a siding, then unload the trailer (if its a can, it needs to be unloaded and mated with a chassis), put it somewhere so it can be picked up, the coordinate to have it picked up by a tractor.) I'd put the effort on getting shippers to accept the longer shipment times - a little less JIT inventory for example, its a change that needs to be made at all levels.
jonknee 11y ago
Why wouldn't the trucks in your future scenario be self driving? Once a container is off the rails a self driving truck would take it to the local distribution center. It would be fantastically more efficient.
- Aloha 11y ago
  I don't think the technology will evolve fast enough to solve the problems of driving a combo-tractor trailer in an urbann environment because of the greater size of the vehicle (and greater sensor load). You'd be better off having a rail spur at the local distribution center.

by Aloha 11y ago

Silhouette 11y ago

The issue that keeps the remaining long haul (greater than 600 miles) on the road (vs rail) is timing, when you put something on the rail, you loose a day or so at one end in loading/classifying and another in classifying/unloading. That's an interesting comment. Modern container ships and the infrastructure that supports them are surely one of the most effective logistical developments in human history, transferring huge volumes of cargo between the ships and road/rail at either end with impressive efficiency. It seems like you're suggesting that road/rail links bring in more of an overhead, despite the lower volumes on a train vs. a ship. Is that a fair conclusion from what you're saying? If that's reasonably accurate, what do you think causes those extra overheads? Is it the wider variety of loads instead of everything being in standard shipping containers, the need for power to support some of them that you mentioned, or maybe just the need for better loading/unloading systems at road/rail transfers?

Aloha 11y ago
I think any multimodal transport has an inherent lag - and I don't think its worth the effort to get the lag out - beyond that because of the inherent delays (you gotta sort the railcar onto a siding, then unload the trailer (if its a can, it needs to be unloaded and mated with a chassis), put it somewhere so it can be picked up, the coordinate to have it picked up by a tractor.) I'd put the effort on getting shippers to accept the longer shipment times - a little less JIT inventory for example, its a change that needs to be made at all levels.

jonknee 11y ago

Why wouldn't the trucks in your future scenario be self driving? Once a container is off the rails a self driving truck would take it to the local distribution center. It would be fantastically more efficient.

Aloha 11y ago
I don't think the technology will evolve fast enough to solve the problems of driving a combo-tractor trailer in an urbann environment because of the greater size of the vehicle (and greater sensor load). You'd be better off having a rail spur at the local distribution center.