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> Let’s say you’re drinking only one beer per hour—you’re probably not, but for simplicity, let’s say you are. The problem with that is you don't really get to
by mistercow 11y ago
> Let’s say you’re drinking only one beer per hour—you’re probably not, but for simplicity, let’s say you are.
The problem with that is you don't really get to make an assumption "for simplicity" if the assumption makes your result stronger. And that's exactly what happens here. If your argument is in favor of "much more than 25%", your simplifying assumption needs to work against that argument.
As intake interval approaches 0, the BAC difference between the two beers approaches 25%. As the interval approaches 1.4 hours, the difference factor approaches infinity (0 units from the 4%, 0.4 units from the 5%).
So if you're going to make an honest simplifying assumption for this argument, you have to pick a shorter interval than you expect is realistic.
- rblatz 11y agoI think they point is most people will drink more than one beer an hour. Lets double it and say 2 an hour to see a trend. 2 beers * 1.4 units = 2.8 2 beers * 1.8 units = 3.6 Subtract 1 from each and you get 1.8 and 2.6 which is roughly 44% more residual alcohol in your system. Lets try 3 beers: 31.4 = 4.2 31.8 = 5.4 residuals: 3.2, 4.4 Which are 37.5% away. Still much more than 25%. So I guess if you are drinking 4 beer per hour his argument breaks down. But I'd also think that a multi hour 4+ beers per hour bender isn't going to last long on 5% beer.
- mistercow 11y agoYou're correct. I'm not a beer drinker, or a social drinker at all, so I'm not well calibrated on what would be typical. So I was certainly not arguing that the conclusion was wrong. Just that the argument the author presented didn't make a very strong case.
- amyjess 11y ago> The problem with that is you don't really get to make an assumption "for simplicity" if the assumption makes your result stronger. One beer per hour is overly conservative. You'll probably find 2-3 more common in reality, maybe even 4.
- mistercow 11y ago> One beer per hour is overly conservative But in the context of this argument, "conservative" would actually mean more beers per hour.