3 ms·

rounding errors, machine errors, so many possibilities for such a tiny discrepancy. Reminds me of the neutrino anomaly that supposedly disproved relativity, unt

rounding errors, machine errors, so many possibilities for such a tiny discrepancy. Reminds me of the neutrino anomaly that supposedly disproved relativity, until it was later discovered faulty wiring was to blame.

ajkjk 11y ago
This is a bit different. The neutrino error was when the only data-collection system was reporting surprising results, which can't really be invalidated without, well, getting another data-collection system and comparing. These errors are surprises in the data itself: since the position of the object can be measured by multiple systems, it's considerably less likely that they would all make the same mistake. Of course it's possible that there's a 'single point of failure', like the data published back from the probe, that causes all the calculations to be off by the same amount. On the other hand, the fact that these same probes/instruments can report everything else with extraordinary accuracy discounts that theory somewhat. It's still possible (perhaps the bug / cosmic-ray-induced bit flip only affects one particular data collection code path..) but it's less likely. Altogether, my intuition for the neutrino result was "this is probably a broken experiment", but my intuition for this is "there's an effect that's not being accounted for". That effect could easily be forgetting to account for thermal radiation reflection or something else that's relatively uninteresting, but, I still think there's something going on.
- phkahler 11y ago
  Thermal expansion?
  - ajkjk 11y ago
    I can't tell what your actual question is.
    - phkahler 11y ago
      It was in response to the parent wondering about overlooked phenomena. Perhaps sunlight or even earthlight heat the surface of the moon and cause thermal expansion. That could easily displace things by several millimeters.
Retric 11y ago
The neutrino error was very much people saying, we don't think this is accurate, but we don't know why and we are not going to hide this data. I saw a video of the press release and the guy looked like he really did not want to be saying those words. Now, after they said that plenty of people ran with it way to far. However, I feel the team did the right thing.
- deciplex 11y ago
  Didn't the guy end up having to resign because of the media circus? It was a pretty sad story IIRC.
  - sohkamyung 11y ago
    Nautilus has an interview with him (Antonio Ereditat) [ http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/the-data-that-threatened-to-break-physics http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/the-data-that-threatened-to-... ]. From his point of view, he did the 'right thing' by announcing the apparent FTL result and inviting people to find out what was wrong.
    - deciplex 11y ago
      He absolutely did the right thing. But in the end I think he resigned because the media circus that followed the announcement meant he could no longer contribute effectively to the project. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_neutrino_anomaly#Discussions_within_the_OPERA_collaboration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_neutrino_ano...
      - plonh 11y ago
        The media circus died down in a few weeks. Why wouldn't he be welcomed back? Why is science drowned in political crap?
        acqq 11y ago
        Read his statement here: http://www.lescienze.it/news/2012/03/30/news/opera_ereditatos_point_of_view-938232/ http://www.lescienze.it/news/2012/03/30/news/opera_ereditato... What happened before is described in the Nautilus article: "In March of 2012, as the dust settled, the OPERA collaboration held another vote, this time to determine whether the collaborators had confidence in the leaders of the experiment. Each member institution got one vote. The tally ended at 16 to 13 favoring no confidence with several abstentions, well short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach the leadership, but enough to send a strong message. Both the OPERA leader, Ereditato, and the experimental coordinator, Dario Autiero, resigned." He's, as far as I understand, now the director of the Laboratory for High Energy Physics at Bern University: http://www.lhep.unibe.ch/modx/index.php?id=86&uid=4 http://www.lhep.unibe.ch/modx/index.php?id=86&uid=4

ajkjk 11y ago

This is a bit different. The neutrino error was when the only data-collection system was reporting surprising results, which can't really be invalidated without, well, getting another data-collection system and comparing. These errors are surprises in the data itself: since the position of the object can be measured by multiple systems, it's considerably less likely that they would all make the same mistake. Of course it's possible that there's a 'single point of failure', like the data published back from the probe, that causes all the calculations to be off by the same amount. On the other hand, the fact that these same probes/instruments can report everything else with extraordinary accuracy discounts that theory somewhat. It's still possible (perhaps the bug / cosmic-ray-induced bit flip only affects one particular data collection code path..) but it's less likely. Altogether, my intuition for the neutrino result was "this is probably a broken experiment", but my intuition for this is "there's an effect that's not being accounted for". That effect could easily be forgetting to account for thermal radiation reflection or something else that's relatively uninteresting, but, I still think there's something going on.

phkahler 11y ago
Thermal expansion?
- ajkjk 11y ago
  I can't tell what your actual question is.
  - phkahler 11y ago
    It was in response to the parent wondering about overlooked phenomena. Perhaps sunlight or even earthlight heat the surface of the moon and cause thermal expansion. That could easily displace things by several millimeters.

Retric 11y ago

The neutrino error was very much people saying, we don't think this is accurate, but we don't know why and we are not going to hide this data. I saw a video of the press release and the guy looked like he really did not want to be saying those words. Now, after they said that plenty of people ran with it way to far. However, I feel the team did the right thing.

deciplex 11y ago
Didn't the guy end up having to resign because of the media circus? It was a pretty sad story IIRC.
- sohkamyung 11y ago
  Nautilus has an interview with him (Antonio Ereditat) [ http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/the-data-that-threatened-to-break-physics http://nautil.us/issue/24/error/the-data-that-threatened-to-... ]. From his point of view, he did the 'right thing' by announcing the apparent FTL result and inviting people to find out what was wrong.
  - deciplex 11y ago
    He absolutely did the right thing. But in the end I think he resigned because the media circus that followed the announcement meant he could no longer contribute effectively to the project. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_neutrino_anomaly#Discussions_within_the_OPERA_collaboration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faster-than-light_neutrino_ano...
    - plonh 11y ago
      The media circus died down in a few weeks. Why wouldn't he be welcomed back? Why is science drowned in political crap?
      - acqq 11y ago
        Read his statement here: http://www.lescienze.it/news/2012/03/30/news/opera_ereditatos_point_of_view-938232/ http://www.lescienze.it/news/2012/03/30/news/opera_ereditato... What happened before is described in the Nautilus article: "In March of 2012, as the dust settled, the OPERA collaboration held another vote, this time to determine whether the collaborators had confidence in the leaders of the experiment. Each member institution got one vote. The tally ended at 16 to 13 favoring no confidence with several abstentions, well short of the two-thirds majority required to impeach the leadership, but enough to send a strong message. Both the OPERA leader, Ereditato, and the experimental coordinator, Dario Autiero, resigned." He's, as far as I understand, now the director of the Laboratory for High Energy Physics at Bern University: http://www.lhep.unibe.ch/modx/index.php?id=86&uid=4 http://www.lhep.unibe.ch/modx/index.php?id=86&uid=4