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I like this summary of the evidence that most published research is false[1]: -"One of the hottest topics in science has two main conclusions: Most publishe
by joaorico 11y ago
I like this summary of the evidence that most published research is false[1]:
-"One of the hottest topics in science has two main conclusions:
Most published research is false
There is a reproducibility crisis in science
The first claim is often stated in a slightly different way: that most results of scientific experiments do not replicate."
- [Ioannidis'] "Paper: Why most published research findings are false.
Main idea: People use hypothesis testing to determine if specific scientific discoveries are significant. This significance calculation is used as a screening mechanism in the scientific literature. Under assumptions about the way people perform these tests and report them it is possible to construct a universe where most published findings are false positive results.
Important drawback: The paper contains no real data, it is purely based on conjecture and simulation."
- then it summarises in the same way 7 other papers, including the Many Labs results.
-"I do think that the reviewed papers are important contributions because they draw attention to real concerns about the modern scientific process. Namely
We need more statistical literacy
We need more computational literacy
We need to require code be published
We need mechanisms of peer review that deal with code
We need a culture that doesn't use reproducibility as a weapon
We need increased transparency in review and evaluation of papers"
- the final paragraph:
"The Many Labs results suggest that the hype about the failures of science are, at the very least, premature. I think an equally important idea is that science has pretty much always worked with some number of false positive and irreplicable studies. This was beautifully described by Jared Horvath in this blog post from the Economist. I think the take home message is that regardless of the rate of false discoveries, the scientific process has led to amazing and life-altering discoveries."
[1] http://simplystatistics.org/2013/12/16/a-summary-of-the-evidence-that-most-published-research-is-false/ http://simplystatistics.org/2013/12/16/a-summary-of-the-evid...