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You're right that the probability that there is a crash on 3 August is unaffected by a potential crash on the 2 of August, but the chance that the crash on the
by kcorbitt 11y ago
You're right that the probability that there is a crash on 3 August is unaffected by a potential crash on the 2 of August, but the chance that the crash on the 3 of August is the next crash (after the 1st of August) is affected.
- philh 11y agoAlso, pedantically, a plane that crashes on the 2nd August isn't going to crash again on the 3rd. We can reduce the rate of crashes by taking planes out of the sky, and one way to do that is to crash them.
- redcalx 11y agoUnless there are reserve planes that come immediately on-line to fill the gap (or the remaining planes do more fly time).