3 ms·
The equipment isn't taken away. It's just placed in storage for 10 years. The breakout time period I've heard about getting to a bomb is one year. Some have
by YZF 11y ago
The equipment isn't taken away. It's just placed in storage for 10 years. The breakout time period I've heard about getting to a bomb is one year. Some have said it's as short as 3 months. Even if we accept "years" not sure that really matters. Somehow I don't think Iran's regime is very concerned about their moral position in western eyes. They have their own ideas of morality. They also have longer term goals, they don't report quarterly results ;)
My current reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Ac...
I think you're also exaggerating the ability of intelligence and inspections to really know what's going on. How long did it take North Korea to go from inspections to a bomb? Iraq? Libya? Syria? Lots of example of the limitations of intelligence gathering.
The agreement basically accepts Iran as a "nuclear threshold" state.
It is very unlikely to push Iran towards any liberal or democratic reforms. The whole framing around how western powers have meddled with Iran historically somehow justifies what's going on today is ridiculous. Two (or more) wrongs don't make a right. The Shah backed by western powers oppressed the people and the current regime backed by other powers oppresses the people (not to mention what happened to moderate Iranians at the time of the revolution). There is an incredible amount of naivety and ignorance around the discussion.
All that said, I tend to agree with Kerry/Obama in that the agreement is perhaps the best we can get right now. It's just not a very good best, kind of an admission of defeat. There is some small chance it will lead to an overall increase in stability but there's also a non-negligible chance of the opposite, less stability and more actors with nuclear weapons.