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I'm not a statistician, which is why I really like this kind of approach. It feels "FiveThirtyEight" trustworthy to me – a weighted average of different opinion
by alexforster 11y ago
I'm not a statistician, which is why I really like this kind of approach. It feels "FiveThirtyEight" trustworthy to me – a weighted average of different opinions.
The claim that it "dynamically adjusts the weight of each algorithm according to the amount of information it contains" is a bit hyperbolic, though. The "weight" function is explained in the code this way:
"If either the "magnitude" [or] "fence" methods don't have any probability to contribute, we don't want to hear about it. If they do, we upweight them substantially."
Regardless, this is unquestionably a great foundation to build into your own systems. Perhaps not as turn-key as the blog suggests, but still a wonderful contribution.