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Nobody knows what the intrinsic value actually is -- you can try to model it with historic cash flows, but it's very inaccurate to do that with a company withou
by exelius 11y ago
Nobody knows what the intrinsic value actually is -- you can try to model it with historic cash flows, but it's very inaccurate to do that with a company without a solid cash flow trend. But because its enterprise value to revenue multiple is way, way out of whack with respect to normal companies, it's a pretty safe bet that there's a lot of expectations priced in to the stock. That's not inherently a bad thing, and in fact it is normal for young companies, but what it really means is that much of the growth potential of Tesla is "priced in" to the share price, meaning that if you buy TSLA at current prices, it may not rise all that much in the event they are wildly successful. If they are anything less than that, the share price could drop dramatically.
Tesla right now is a bet that their battery technology will be insanely profitable and have some sustainable advantage over competing technologies. It's an interesting stock to play with as part of an algo strategy because it's so volatile (again, this is typical of young companies), but I wouldn't own TSLA as a buy-and-hold right now. The share price is just too expensive, and they're going to need massive, continued infusions of capital to continue (as evidenced by the article).
Basically, the risk with Tesla is that if they are crazy profitable, their share price likely won't rise all that much because investor expectations are high. If they are not crazy profitable, the share price will drop over time.
- gchokov 11y agoVery good analysis and bonds well with my thinking as well. For me, TSLA doesn't have the fundamentals to be so expensive. In theory, TSLA shareholders are actually losing money right now if you exclude the share price movement by speculation.