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That chart doesn't take into account dividends. At the end of 2014, the 15 year annualized return of the S&P 500 was 4.24%. The 20 year annualized return was

That chart doesn't take into account dividends. At the end of 2014, the 15 year annualized return of the S&P 500 was 4.24%. The 20 year annualized return was 9.85%. SO, while you were claiming the above poster was using bad numbers by using "the last 6 years," you are similarly using biased data by looking at the past 15 years because that's the eve of the dot com bust.

mikeash 11y ago
Good point about the dividends. Do your numbers take inflation into account? Edit: looks like without inflation, if this calculator is to be believed: http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/ http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/ The annualized return for the past 15 years with both dividends and inflation is under 2%. I know that I'm cherry-picking by using a 15 year period. That was my entire point: that you can cherry-pick to find almost any rate of return. However, that particular period is still pretty relevant. If your plan is to spend 10% of your savings per year, then a 15-year period of zero (or just small) returns will wipe you out. Even if it bounces back afterwards, you're still screwed.