I believe that the error the article describes comes from the family of "inside view" errors (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting http

I believe that the error the article describes comes from the family of "inside view" errors (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reference_class_forecasting). Taking an outside view instead is a very widely applicable principle.