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I'm no expert, and you may be right about my inaccuracies. From what I've read, part of the problem is that the system set up in 1913 was designed to be complic
by DougWebb 17y ago
I'm no expert, and you may be right about my inaccuracies. From what I've read, part of the problem is that the system set up in 1913 was designed to be complicated and confusing to conceal exactly where the control lies. It's probably also overly complicated because it's designed by committee with many competing interests, just like all of our laws are.
One thing you said which I'm not so sure about is the dangers of inflation vs deflation. Inflation is bad for lenders because they money they get back isn't as valuable as the money they lent, but the interest they charge is supposed to cover that. Lenders are only really hurt when the inflation rate exceeds interest rates. For debtors, inflation helps them pay their debts with less valuable money, but only if their income keeps up with inflation. For most people that hasn't happened; I believe inflation-adjusted incomes peaked in the early 70s, and has held steady or dropped since then while debt has climbed dramatically. So, inflation has not been good for debtors.
Deflation is good for lenders because they get paid back with more valuable money then they lent, if they get paid back. Deflation could be bad for debtors because their debts are harder to pay, but the cost of other living expenses ought to drop in a deflationary environment which would leave more money available to pay debts off. It would probably be more difficult for employers to reduce salaries in a deflationary environment than it is for them to avoid raising salaries in an inflationary environment, so debtors are more likely to keep or increase their spending power during deflation. If we had a long-term deflationary environment, interest rates could drop to zero or even go negative without hurting lenders, so long as the rates are higher than the deflation rate, and this will help the debtors as well.
So overall, I think deflation is better for everybody, so long as it's gradual. Deflation means that the value of our money is increasing over time instead of decreasing, and that can benefit everyone. There is a potential problem with interest rates on existing debt, but if the deflation is low and consistent, lenders could be encouraged, or forced, to reduce rates accordingly. This wouldn't even have to be government-mandated; competition among the banks would bring back 0% loans that people would use to refinance their debt at lower rates.