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The Inmarsat position data was very controversial when it was first announced. This was because the flight path, the last radio contact and last radar signal we

by JanSolo 11y ago

The Inmarsat position data was very controversial when it was first announced. This was because the flight path, the last radio contact and last radar signal were all recorded over the South China Sea; a completely different ocean to where the debris was found. Indeed, the first search operation was over and around the designated flightpath, which was literally oceans away from where the plane likely came down. Thanks to Inmarsat, we have a much better, though not completely accurate, understanding of what happened.

hencq 11y ago
All I'm saying is that this might support the Inmarsat conclusions, but that's not the same as proving it. If my hypothesis is that all swans are white, finding a black swan would disprove it. Instead this is another white swan. It supports the hypothesis, but it doesn't prove it. Note by the way that I have no reason to doubt the Inmarsat analysis. I think that was truly groundbreaking use of the data. All I'm saying is that this find doesn't really prove the analysis, nor help with narrowing down the search.
Laforet 11y ago
IIRC it　was controversial as it implies that the 777 was in controlled flight for several hours after it lost contact, making it a deliberate act rather than accident. Radar data released by the Malaysian military showed clearly that the plane turned west then south.
mikeash 11y ago
Note that the plane was tracked on military radar flying west from the South China Sea, across the Malay Peninsula, and over the Andaman Sea before it flew out of range. Despite this fact, the Malaysians allowed search and rescue efforts to remain focused on entirely the wrong ocean for two days before they finally told anybody that they might be looking in the wrong spot, and it was four days before they actually revealed that they had a full hour of additional radar data that showed the plane had definitely not ended up anywhere near its intended flight path. Of course, even then the search was subsequently done in the Andaman Sea area under the assumption that the plane crashed near the position of its last radar contact, as the Inmarsat data wasn't announced until several days later.

by JanSolo 11y ago

hencq 11y ago

All I'm saying is that this might support the Inmarsat conclusions, but that's not the same as proving it. If my hypothesis is that all swans are white, finding a black swan would disprove it. Instead this is another white swan. It supports the hypothesis, but it doesn't prove it. Note by the way that I have no reason to doubt the Inmarsat analysis. I think that was truly groundbreaking use of the data. All I'm saying is that this find doesn't really prove the analysis, nor help with narrowing down the search.

Laforet 11y ago

IIRC it　was controversial as it implies that the 777 was in controlled flight for several hours after it lost contact, making it a deliberate act rather than accident. Radar data released by the Malaysian military showed clearly that the plane turned west then south.

mikeash 11y ago

Note that the plane was tracked on military radar flying west from the South China Sea, across the Malay Peninsula, and over the Andaman Sea before it flew out of range. Despite this fact, the Malaysians allowed search and rescue efforts to remain focused on entirely the wrong ocean for two days before they finally told anybody that they might be looking in the wrong spot, and it was four days before they actually revealed that they had a full hour of additional radar data that showed the plane had definitely not ended up anywhere near its intended flight path. Of course, even then the search was subsequently done in the Andaman Sea area under the assumption that the plane crashed near the position of its last radar contact, as the Inmarsat data wasn't announced until several days later.