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The computing market is in a weird state. I'm sure we all remember netbooks. They sprung up overnight. I remember Sony and others calling them a "race to the b

by cletus 11y ago

The computing market is in a weird state. I'm sure we all remember netbooks. They sprung up overnight. I remember Sony and others calling them a "race to the bottom" yet they seemed to disappear almost as quickly as they appeared. I honestly thought the tablet market was going to be huge. FWIW I use my iPad a ton. In both cases there was a certain amount of convergence. Costs on laptops came down so you could get good specs for a relatively low cost. The 2nd Macbook Air was (IMHO) game-changing here and it took competitors several years to match the hardware/price point. With tablets phone have gotten larger to the point where the line between phone is blurry when phones can be 6" and tablets 7". Personally I hate this trend and still have an iPhone 5 because I like the size. Now I think device longevity has something to do with all this. I'm sure there are people happily using the original iPad, or at least the iPad 2. There's really no reason for most people to upgrade or replace any computer until it dies. So I don't really know where the market. Laptops/desktops aren't a growth market. If tablets are in decline and netbooks are essentially extinct, what's left? Are phones the only growth area? What happens when that market hits maturity as I'm sure it will at some point?

smt88 11y ago
Netbooks haven't disappeared. My family and many friends use them as their only non-smartphone device. They're called "Chromebooks" or "cloudbooks" now. The tablet market was huge, but it was because people craved cheap, usable laptops (see comment above). Something without a physical keyboard or a stand is simply not very useful. It's a portable TV. People wanted the laptop form factor, and all those keyboard/dock accessories became almost standard. You're right, though, that device longevity has a lot to do with it. Same with laptops. If you have a decent laptop with a SSD from a few years ago, you're not missing all that much by not buying a new one this year. I don't really see why there has to be any area for major growth right now. A lot of these form factors have reached relative maturity. We'll eventually get to the point where all the computing power we need fits into our phone, and we can just use "dumb" form factors (TV, laptop shell, etc.) to project our phone. Then we'll really see the decline of the other form factors.
contingencies 11y ago
what's left? Apparently some vendors feel watches are the answer. I remain skeptical. Personally my consumption habits are probably outlying: my last Macbook Pro's power connector broke... the machine itself was fine, but there's no easy way to repair it, so I bought a new max spec one in Paris (French azerty keyboard) to wait out the next hardware failure. This desktop, assembled from scratch in a Bangkok computer market, dates from around 2011 (Thai keyboard) and happily processes cluster computing simulations, HD video edits, high resolution photography and 3D games. I was totally phoneless for a year and a half until a few months ago, when I bought the Samsung S6 solely to take photos of my daughter while traveling (my SLR and lenses were too bulky to carry). I bought a cheap tablet (HTC?) for my mother in law last year, which sees some use. Here in China the cable TV system gives you video on demand without regard for intellectual property (kind of like Popcorn Time, but instant and pre-cached with a weird assortment of Asian movies in addition to blockbuster stuff) so nobody really does the Smart TV thing, though people use specific torrent-based apps like PPTV if they really want something obscure. Consoles are in my experience exceptionally rare.
bobajeff 11y ago
Well for me phones have always and continue to be more convenient. Tablets are better for watching TV but they don't fit in my pocket and taking a backpack with me isn't very optimal. In fact I'd like companies to make even smaller smart phones than they already do. I fantasize of iPhone Nano (iPhone the size of iPod Nano) or Pebble Call (Pebble Time with phone functionality). Because I want more pocket space. I prefer technology to be way far in the background and I believe so does the rest of the world.
sputknick 11y ago
Agreed on the longevity point. I don't agree this data says the tablet market is in decline, just that it's maturing. I'm still plugging away on my ipad 2 from 2011 with no intention of replacing it. In that time I've had 2 laptops and 3 phones. Maybe tablets just last longer. People aren't buying fewer tablets because they are in decline, people are buying fewer tablets because there are fewer people left who need to buy a tablet.

by cletus 11y ago

smt88 11y ago

Netbooks haven't disappeared. My family and many friends use them as their only non-smartphone device. They're called "Chromebooks" or "cloudbooks" now. The tablet market was huge, but it was because people craved cheap, usable laptops (see comment above). Something without a physical keyboard or a stand is simply not very useful. It's a portable TV. People wanted the laptop form factor, and all those keyboard/dock accessories became almost standard. You're right, though, that device longevity has a lot to do with it. Same with laptops. If you have a decent laptop with a SSD from a few years ago, you're not missing all that much by not buying a new one this year. I don't really see why there has to be any area for major growth right now. A lot of these form factors have reached relative maturity. We'll eventually get to the point where all the computing power we need fits into our phone, and we can just use "dumb" form factors (TV, laptop shell, etc.) to project our phone. Then we'll really see the decline of the other form factors.

contingencies 11y ago

what's left? Apparently some vendors feel watches are the answer. I remain skeptical. Personally my consumption habits are probably outlying: my last Macbook Pro's power connector broke... the machine itself was fine, but there's no easy way to repair it, so I bought a new max spec one in Paris (French azerty keyboard) to wait out the next hardware failure. This desktop, assembled from scratch in a Bangkok computer market, dates from around 2011 (Thai keyboard) and happily processes cluster computing simulations, HD video edits, high resolution photography and 3D games. I was totally phoneless for a year and a half until a few months ago, when I bought the Samsung S6 solely to take photos of my daughter while traveling (my SLR and lenses were too bulky to carry). I bought a cheap tablet (HTC?) for my mother in law last year, which sees some use. Here in China the cable TV system gives you video on demand without regard for intellectual property (kind of like Popcorn Time, but instant and pre-cached with a weird assortment of Asian movies in addition to blockbuster stuff) so nobody really does the Smart TV thing, though people use specific torrent-based apps like PPTV if they really want something obscure. Consoles are in my experience exceptionally rare.

bobajeff 11y ago

Well for me phones have always and continue to be more convenient. Tablets are better for watching TV but they don't fit in my pocket and taking a backpack with me isn't very optimal. In fact I'd like companies to make even smaller smart phones than they already do. I fantasize of iPhone Nano (iPhone the size of iPod Nano) or Pebble Call (Pebble Time with phone functionality). Because I want more pocket space. I prefer technology to be way far in the background and I believe so does the rest of the world.

sputknick 11y ago

Agreed on the longevity point. I don't agree this data says the tablet market is in decline, just that it's maturing. I'm still plugging away on my ipad 2 from 2011 with no intention of replacing it. In that time I've had 2 laptops and 3 phones. Maybe tablets just last longer. People aren't buying fewer tablets because they are in decline, people are buying fewer tablets because there are fewer people left who need to buy a tablet.